No. 13
May 2002
• web: www.learnworld.org
• email: gc.dd@learnworld.org
• last additions:
24 May 2002.
Hiroshima Dome Denuclearization Design
Cite as •  http://www.learnworld.org/GC.DD=2002.05.24.html
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NEWSLINKS
Russian-US Nuclear Treaty


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2002.05.13  Tuesday
GW Bush announced that US and Russia would sign a nuclear weapon treaty next week. The text of the treaty was not released, but articles on the 14th carried more details.

• GW Bush comments at the White House, 2002.05.13..

• Michael R. Gordon, The New York Times, 2002.05.14, “Treaty Offers Pentagon New Flexibility.”.


2002.05.25  Friday
The text of the proposed US-Russian nuclear weapons treaty is made public.

• Treaty text..

DATES & REFERENCES 2002:


January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

JANUARY 2002
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2002.01.09  Wednesday
The US CIA released an unclassified summary of its December 2001 National Intelligence Estimate “Foreign Missile Developments and the Ballistic Missile Threat Through 2015.”

• CIA Summary, 2002.01.09..

2002.01.09  Wednesday
A Department of Defense briefing made public selected features of the administration’s Nuclear Policy Review, first such review since 1994.

• Department of Defense NPR briefing transcript, 2002.01.09..
• Department of Defense NPR briefing slides, 2002.01.09..
• Patrick E. Tyler, The New York Times, “Russia Rejects U.S. Plans to Store Warheads”, 2002.01.11..


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FEBRUARY 2002
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2002.02.26  Tuesday
US has no evidence that Al Qaida obtained nuclear material. But it also has recently expressed concern that “Weapons-grade and weapons-usable nuclear materials have been stolen from some Russian institutes.”

• The New York Times, 2002.02.26..


MARCH 2002
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2002.03.01  Friday
Newspapers reported a US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention “feasibility study” showing that it was possible to conduct an analysis of the radiation effects of atmospheric nuclear tests. [Note that since 1955 the UN Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation has also undertaken studies on this and related subjects.]

• James Glantz, “Almost All in U.S. Have Been Exposed to Fallout, Study Finds”, The New York Times, 2002.03.01. A graphic is especially clear [although miscaptioned, corrected later], and did not note that the original report is dated August 2001. [The correct title is shown in the next entry.]

• A FEASIBILITY STUDY OF THE HEALTH CONSEQUENCES TO THE AMERICAN POPULATION OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS TESTS CONDUCTED BY THE UNITED STATES AND OTHER NATIONS, 2001.08. A map, reproduced in the Times’ account, shows “Preliminary estimates of the total dose (milliGray [mGy]) to the red bone marrow of children born 1 January 1951 from NTS and global fallout for all radionuclides.” “The draft Technical Report will be peer reviewed by the National Academy of Sciences’ Committee on Assessment of CDC Radiation Studies. . . .In addition, the Technical Report will be available in draft for public review on the Internet at http://www.cdc.gov/nceh/radiation/default.htm.” As of 1 March 2002 the Technical Report was not yet posted.

• UN Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation, UNSCEAR 2000 Report to the General Assembly, Sources and Effects of Ionizing Radiation, v I, Sources and v II, Effects.


2002.03.09-.11  Saturday
William Arkin reveals details of leaked sections of the 8 January 2002 Nuclear Posture Review. By his account, they include planning for use against Russia, China, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Syria, and North Korea, and development of nuclear weapons and capabilities suited to initiating nuclear war. The New York Times states that it has a copy of the 56-page Review, but only brief passages are quoted verbatim in the Michael Gordon despatch.


2002.03.12  Tuesday
US Secretary of State Colin Powell, testifying before the Senate Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice, State, and the Judiciary, was reported by NPR to have said the following:

   “With respect to reports that somehow we are thinking of preemptively going after somebody or that, in one editorial I read this morning, we have lowered the nuclear threshold, we have done no such thing.”

[Reporter Don Gonyea: “But Powell also had this to say regarding what this report means to countries trying to acquire or develop weapons of mass destruction.”]

   “It does not seem to us to be a bad thing for them to look out from their little countries and their little capitals, and see a United States that has a full range of options, an American president that has a full range of options available to him, to deter in the first instance, and to defend the United States of America, and the American people, our way of life, and our friends and allies.”

• Powell’s recorded voice is reproduced on the NPR site, in a segment on the NPR during the program Morning Edition. http://www.npr.org/ramfiles/me/20020313.me.04.ram, 2002.03.13.


APRIL 2002
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2002.04.14  Sunday
Lt. Gen. Ronald T. Kadish, head of the US Missile Defense Agency, said that the Defense Science Board was evaluating nuclear-armed anti-missiles as one missile defense option.

• The New York Times, 2002.04.15.


2002.04.29  Mon
UK Foreign Secretary Jack Straw presented to Parliament a Green Paper on strengthening the Biological Weapons Convention.

• United Kingdom. The Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs.“Strengthening the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention: Countering the Threat from Biological Weapons,”. 2002.04.29. [pdf document].


MAY 2002
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2002.05.13  Tuesday
GW Bush announced that US and Russia would sign a nuclear weapon treaty next week. The text of the treaty was not released, but articles on the 14th carried more details.

• GW Bush comments at the White House, 2002.05.13..

• Michael R. Gordon, The New York Times, 2002.05.14, “Treaty Offers Pentagon New Flexibility.”.


2002.05.25  Friday
The text of the proposed US-Russian nuclear weapons treaty is made public.

• Treaty text..



 


PAPERS

2002.02.01
Bruce D. Larkin, on the 2002 Nuclear Posture Review. Also available as a pdf file.
  “The US 2002 Nuclear Posture Review and Its Implications for Nuclear Abolition”

2001.09.30
Bruce D. Larkin, on the ongoing ABM Treaty struggle, with addendum on the 13 December 2001 Bush declaration of intention to withdraw
  “Treaty Abrogation and GW Bush’s Designs on the ABM Treaty”


LINKS TO CENTERS AND GROUPS WORKING IN ARMS CONTROL:
CENTERS & GROUPS JOURNALS
ACRONYM follows ongoing arms control and disarmament negotiations. Disarmament Diplomacy [ACRONYM]. Disarmament Diplomacy No.63, April 2002; Disarmament Documentation, April 2002 Contents
Arms Control Association [Washington] Arms Control Association: Arms Control Today Latest: April 2002, Volume 32, No.3.
BASIC [British American Security Information Council] [London & Washington]
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace [New York] Non-Proliferation project.
Center for Nonproliferation Studies. Monterey Institute of International Studies. [Monterey, California] Non-Proliferation Review. CNS/MIIS. Latest: Fall-Winter 2001< /a>
CIRPES [Paris]. CIRPES: Le Débat Stratégique. Monthly. Most recent: January 2002.
Global Beat Nuclear policy [Mark Hibbs’ review of events & news reports.]
National Security Archive[Washington, DC] studies, many based on declassified US documents.
Nautilus Institute [Berkeley] specializes on Northeast Asia and nuclear policy. Nautilus: Nuclear Policy. Weekly. Most recent. or the Archive.
Program on General Disarmament [Univ of Maryland].
Programme for Promoting Nuclear Non-Proliferation [Southampton] Mountbatten Centre for International Studies, University of Southampton
SIPRI [Stockholm]: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. SIPRI Yearbook.
The Henry L. Stimson Center [Washington].
Union of Concerned Scientists [Cambridge, Massachusetts] especially on missile defense and nuclear policy.
United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research [UNIDIR] [Geneva] Disarmament Forum [UNIDIR].
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Editor’s Note:  The text of the proposed US-Russian treaty on nuclear “reductions” is now public. It is a thin document. Significantly:

•    The preamble includes a nod to the key denuclearization article of the NPT: “Mindful of their obligations under Article VI . . . ”.

•    The fact that the proposed treaty refers only to “operationally deployed strategic nuclear warheads”--not to the entire stockpile of deployed and non-deployed warheads--is smuggled into the text by indirection. The concealing language is “Each Party shall reduce and limit strategic nuclear warheads, as stated by the President of the United States of America on November 13, 2001 and as stated by the President of the Russian Federation on November 13, 2001 and December 13, 2001 respectively”.

•    Either party may withdraw “upon three months’ written notice”.

•    “The Parties agree that the START Treaty remains in force ...”, defined in the preamble as the treaty of 31 July 1991: that is, START I. But there is no acknowledgment of START II. START II was signed, but ratification has not been complete. In effect, this document sets aside START II, and does not bind either party to its vague “1700-2200” limit until the end of 2012.

•    A Bilateral Implementation Commission is instituted. In effect, it replaces the Standing Consultative Commission, which was created through the ABM Treaty, which GW Bush has rejected.

•    The proposed treaty contains no provisions about (i) the number of undeployed warheads which may be retained (the ‘hedge’), (ii) phasing of reductions, (iii) irreversibility, and (iv) verification provisions beyond those spelled out in START I. It explicitly leaves each party free to meet the limit as it chooses. Newspaper reports during the recent negotiation said that verification was among sticking points.

•   It is a reasonable speculation that there must be further understandings between the GW Bush and Putin administrations which are not being made public at this time.


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DOCUMENT [2002.05.24]

Treaty between the United States of America and the Russian Federation on Strategic Offensive Reductions

The United States of America and the Russian Federation, hereinafter referred to as the Parties,

Embarking upon the path of new relations for a new century and committed to the goal of strengthening their relationship through cooperation and friendship,

Believing that new global challenges and threats require the building of a qualitatively new foundation for strategic relations between the Parties,

Desiring to establish a genuine partnership based on the principles of mutual security, cooperation, trust, openness, and predictability,

Committed to implementing significant reductions in strategic offensive arms,

Proceeding from the Joint Statements by the President of the United States of America and the President of the Russian Federation on Strategic Issues of July 22, 2001 in Genoa and on a New Relationship between the United States and Russia of November 13, 2001 in Washington,

Mindful of their obligations under the Treaty Between the United States of America and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics on the Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms of July 31, 1991, hereinafter referred to as the START Treaty,

Mindful of their obligations under Article VI of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons of July 1, 1968, and

Convinced that this Treaty will help to establish more favourable conditions for actively promoting security and cooperation, and enhancing international stability,

Have agreed as follows:

Article I

Each Party shall reduce and limit strategic nuclear warheads, as stated by the President of the United States of America on November 13, 2001 and as stated by the President of the Russian Federation on November 13, 2001 and December 13, 2001 respectively, so that by December 31, 2012 the aggregate number of such warheads does not exceed 1700-2200 for each Party. Each Party shall determine for itself the composition and structure of its strategic offensive arms, based on the established aggregate limit for the number of such warheads.

Article II

The Parties agree that the START Treaty remains in force in accordance with its terms.

Article III

For purposes of implementing this Treaty, the Parties shall hold meetings at least twice a year of a Bilateral Implementation Commission.

Article IV

1. This Treaty shall be subject to ratification in accordance with the constitutional procedures of each Party. This Treaty shall enter into force on the date of the exchange of instruments of ratification.

2. This Treaty shall remain in force until December 31, 2012 and may be extended by agreement of the Parties or superseded earlier by a subsequent agreement.

3. Each Party, in exercising its national sovereignty, may withdraw from this Treaty upon three months written notice to the other Party.

Article V

This Treaty shall be registered pursuant to Article 102 of the Charter of the United Nations.


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  INDEX
Texts
 • US-Russian nuclear weapon treaty text [24 May 2002].

 • 
2001 Archive    Note that 2001 entries have been archived. New texts and references will be added to this page.

Groups of Links on This Page
 Dates & References
 Centers & Groups
 Journals
 Current Document Text
 Pointers
 Prior GC.DD Papers
 2001 Documents
 Retrospective Documents
 About Us

Bibliographies
 Good Books: A Short List
 A Wider Bibliography [By Topic]
 A Wider Bibliography [By Author]

Archive
 
GC.DD April 2002
 GC.DD March 2002
 GC.DD February 2002
 GC.DD January 2002

 Dates & References: 2001
 GC.DD December 2001
 GC.DD November 2001
 GC.DD October 2001
 GC.DD September 2001
 GC.DD August 2001
 GC.DD July 2001
 GC.DD June 2001
 GC.DD May 2001

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POINTERS

Decoy discrimination in US missile defense tests is the subject of two US General Accounting Office reports issued on 28 February 2002: “Missile Defense: Review of Allegations About an Early National Missile Defense Flight Test,” GAO-02-125; and “Missile Defense: Review of Results and Limitations of an Early National Missile Defense Flight Test,” GAO-02-124. These reports concern issues raised by Dr. Nira Schwartz and Professor Theodore Postol. The second item includes the text of a 12 June 2001 GAO report on DoD challenges to Professor Postol’s handling of material alleged to be classified.
On 8 November 2001 the National Security Archive posted Electronic Briefing Book No. 60: The Secret History of the ABM Treaty, 1969-1972, edited by William Burr, containing the texts of a number of revelatory documents of the period.
BASIC posted [November 2001] the Research Report Secrecy and Dependence: The UK Trident System in the 21st Century.
NRDC has posted, and issued in hard copy in July 2001, The U.S. Nuclear War Plan: A Time for Change, addressing the SIOP. It incorporates results of an ingenious NRDC simulation of the effects of nuclear attacks.
CNS issued this report by Tariq Rauf on 2001.05.11: Towards NPT 2005: An Action Plan for the ‘13-Steps’ Towards Nuclear Disarmament Agreed at NPT 2000.

The Global Collaborative on Denuclearization Design  supports ongoing teaching and research of participants in the Global Collaborative on Denuclearization Design <GC.DD>, a voluntary research group whose members work within and outside the academy.

This page is ‘open’ for additions and changes until the end of the month, when it is archived and a new page opened.

Please direct inquiries, comments, and suggested additions to gc.dd@learnworld.org

Editorial Committee

Convenor: Bruce D. Larkin
Executive Editor: G. Allen Greb
Technologies Assessment: Alec Stefansky

Santa Cruz Project Collaborators:
Grants: Elyse Poppers
Information Technology: Rogan Lynch
Research: Erika Sawyer


PRIOR GC.DD PAPERS:
2001.09.15: Bruce D. Larkin, “Contrary Maxims: Can We Live With Anarcho- Unilateralism?”.
2001.09.26: Bruce D. Larkin, “ Nuclear Weapons and GW Bush’s ‘War on Terrorism’”.
2001 DOCUMENTS:
2001.01.11: Report of the Commission to Assess United States National Security, Space Management, and Organization [Rumsfeld Commission 2001][pdf]
2001.05.02: George W. Bush Speech at NDU on Missile Defense
2001.06.08: French President Jacques Chirac’s remarks on French defense and nuclear policy, delivered to the IHEDN. Or you may read a version with highlighting by GC.DD to signal key remarks relevant to denuclearization [in pdf format].
2001.07.12: Paul Wolfowitz Testimony on NMD. And in pdf format.
2001.07.12: Lieutenant General Ronald T. Kadish, USAF, Director, Ballistic Missile Defense Organization, Testimony on NMD [in pdf format].
2001.07.16: Sino-Russian Treaty, 16 July 2001 in a side-by-side Chinese and English version (which requires a browser which can display Chinese simplified characters). Or consult the English version.
2001.10.11: GW Bush Press Conference, 11 October 2001. Or consult a version with GC.DD markup highlighting comments on nuclear issues.
2002 DOCUMENTS:
2002.01.09: Special Briefing on the Nuclear Posture Review. [Presenter: J. D. Crouch, U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs.]
2002.04.29:United Kingdom. The Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs.“Strengthening the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention: Countering the Threat from Biological Weapons,”. [pdf document].
2002.05.24: “Treaty Between the United States of America and the Russian Federation on Strategic Offensive Reductions”. [Treaty of Moscow]
RETROSPECTIVES:
1996.09.19: White House. National Science and Technology Council. “Fact Sheet: National Space Policy”. This document stipulates that “Consistent with treaty obligations, the United States will develop, operate and maintain space control capabilities to ensure freedom of action in space and, if directed, deny such freedom of action to adversaries.”
1983.03.23: Ronald Reagan 23 March 1983 “Star Wars” speech
1945: Documents on the Decision to Use Atomic Bombs on the Cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. [Gene Dannen’s site.]
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