NEWSLINKS Russian-US Nuclear Treaty 2002.05.13  Tuesday GW Bush announced that US and Russia would sign a nuclear weapon treaty next week. The text of the treaty was not released, but articles on the 14th carried more details. • GW Bush comments at the White House, 2002.05.13.. • Michael R. Gordon, The New York Times, 2002.05.14, “Treaty Offers Pentagon New Flexibility.”. 2002.05.25  Friday The text of the proposed US-Russian nuclear weapons treaty is made public. • Treaty text..

DATES & REFERENCES 2002:

2002.01.09  Wednesday
The US CIA released an unclassified summary of its December 2001 National Intelligence Estimate “Foreign Missile Developments and the Ballistic Missile Threat Through 2015.”

2002.01.09  Wednesday
A Department of Defense briefing made public selected features of the administration’s Nuclear Policy Review, first such review since 1994.

2002.02.26  Tuesday
US has no evidence that Al Qaida obtained nuclear material. But it also has recently expressed concern that “Weapons-grade and weapons-usable nuclear materials have been stolen from some Russian institutes.”

2002.03.01  Friday
Newspapers reported a US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention “feasibility study” showing that it was possible to conduct an analysis of the radiation effects of atmospheric nuclear tests. [Note that since 1955 the UN Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation has also undertaken studies on this and related subjects.]

2002.03.09-.11  Saturday
William Arkin reveals details of leaked sections of the 8 January 2002 Nuclear Posture Review. By his account, they include planning for use against Russia, China, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Syria, and North Korea, and development of nuclear weapons and capabilities suited to initiating nuclear war. The New York Times states that it has a copy of the 56-page Review, but only brief passages are quoted verbatim in the Michael Gordon despatch.

2002.03.12  Tuesday
US Secretary of State Colin Powell, testifying before the Senate Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice, State, and the Judiciary, was reported by NPR to have said the following:

   “With respect to reports that somehow we are thinking of preemptively going after somebody or that, in one editorial I read this morning, we have lowered the nuclear threshold, we have done no such thing.”

[Reporter Don Gonyea: “But Powell also had this to say regarding what this report means to countries trying to acquire or develop weapons of mass destruction.”]

   “It does not seem to us to be a bad thing for them to look out from their little countries and their little capitals, and see a United States that has a full range of options, an American president that has a full range of options available to him, to deter in the first instance, and to defend the United States of America, and the American people, our way of life, and our friends and allies.”

2002.04.14  Sunday
Lt. Gen. Ronald T. Kadish, head of the US Missile Defense Agency, said that the Defense Science Board was evaluating nuclear-armed anti-missiles as one missile defense option.

2002.04.29  Mon
UK Foreign Secretary Jack Straw presented to Parliament a Green Paper on strengthening the Biological Weapons Convention.

2002.05.13  Tuesday
GW Bush announced that US and Russia would sign a nuclear weapon treaty next week. The text of the treaty was not released, but articles on the 14th carried more details.

2002.05.25  Friday
The text of the proposed US-Russian nuclear weapons treaty is made public.

Editor’s Note:  The text of the proposed US-Russian treaty on nuclear “reductions” is now public. It is a thin document. Significantly:

•    The preamble includes a nod to the key denuclearization article of the NPT: “Mindful of their obligations under Article VI . . . ”.

•    The fact that the proposed treaty refers only to “operationally deployed strategic nuclear warheads”--not to the entire stockpile of deployed and non-deployed warheads--is smuggled into the text by indirection. The concealing language is “Each Party shall reduce and limit strategic nuclear warheads, as stated by the President of the United States of America on November 13, 2001 and as stated by the President of the Russian Federation on November 13, 2001 and December 13, 2001 respectively”.

•    Either party may withdraw “upon three months’ written notice”.

•    “The Parties agree that the START Treaty remains in force ...”, defined in the preamble as the treaty of 31 July 1991: that is, START I. But there is no acknowledgment of START II. START II was signed, but ratification has not been complete. In effect, this document sets aside START II, and does not bind either party to its vague “1700-2200” limit until the end of 2012.

•    A Bilateral Implementation Commission is instituted. In effect, it replaces the Standing Consultative Commission, which was created through the ABM Treaty, which GW Bush has rejected.

•    The proposed treaty contains no provisions about (i) the number of undeployed warheads which may be retained (the ‘hedge’), (ii) phasing of reductions, (iii) irreversibility, and (iv) verification provisions beyond those spelled out in START I. It explicitly leaves each party free to meet the limit as it chooses. Newspaper reports during the recent negotiation said that verification was among sticking points.

•   It is a reasonable speculation that there must be further understandings between the GW Bush and Putin administrations which are not being made public at this time.

The United States of America and the Russian Federation, hereinafter referred to as the Parties,

Embarking upon the path of new relations for a new century and committed to the goal of strengthening their relationship through cooperation and friendship,

Believing that new global challenges and threats require the building of a qualitatively new foundation for strategic relations between the Parties,

Desiring to establish a genuine partnership based on the principles of mutual security, cooperation, trust, openness, and predictability,

Committed to implementing significant reductions in strategic offensive arms,

Proceeding from the Joint Statements by the President of the United States of America and the President of the Russian Federation on Strategic Issues of July 22, 2001 in Genoa and on a New Relationship between the United States and Russia of November 13, 2001 in Washington,

Mindful of their obligations under the Treaty Between the United States of America and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics on the Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms of July 31, 1991, hereinafter referred to as the START Treaty,

Mindful of their obligations under Article VI of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons of July 1, 1968, and

Convinced that this Treaty will help to establish more favourable conditions for actively promoting security and cooperation, and enhancing international stability,

Have agreed as follows:

Article I

Each Party shall reduce and limit strategic nuclear warheads, as stated by the President of the United States of America on November 13, 2001 and as stated by the President of the Russian Federation on November 13, 2001 and December 13, 2001 respectively, so that by December 31, 2012 the aggregate number of such warheads does not exceed 1700-2200 for each Party. Each Party shall determine for itself the composition and structure of its strategic offensive arms, based on the established aggregate limit for the number of such warheads.

Article II

The Parties agree that the START Treaty remains in force in accordance with its terms.

Article III

For purposes of implementing this Treaty, the Parties shall hold meetings at least twice a year of a Bilateral Implementation Commission.

Article IV

1. This Treaty shall be subject to ratification in accordance with the constitutional procedures of each Party. This Treaty shall enter into force on the date of the exchange of instruments of ratification.

2. This Treaty shall remain in force until December 31, 2012 and may be extended by agreement of the Parties or superseded earlier by a subsequent agreement.

3. Each Party, in exercising its national sovereignty, may withdraw from this Treaty upon three months written notice to the other Party.

Article V

This Treaty shall be registered pursuant to Article 102 of the Charter of the United Nations.